"Green shoots" sprouting in Canada's fall housing market: RE/MAX - Calgary - Canada's Podcast

While average residential sale prices are likely to increase in the majority markets analyzed, there are a couple of outliers where prices are anticipated to be flat or decline, including Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay and London, it said.

The report said 25 per cent of Canadians expressed that saving for a home purchase is one of their top three priorities when it comes to financial savings, despite high cost of living and affordability challenges.

In a video interview, Christopher Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada, talks about the company’s latest report – the Fall Housing Market Outlook. The video can be seen here.

PRESS RELEASE
TORONTO, Sept. 3, 2024 /CNW/ — With the long-anticipated decline in interest rates finally starting to materialize, early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada suggest steady housing market activity this fall. Average sale prices across all housing types are expected to increase between one and six per cent in the majority of regions by year’s end, according to RE/MAX’s 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook.

Ahead of the next Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement on September 4, two in 10 Canadians (16 per cent) said they will feel more comfortable engaging in the real estate market once they see there is more than a 100-basis-point cut to the BoC’s lending rate between now and the end of the year, according to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX as part of the report.

Chris Alexander

“The fall market is usually a good early indicator for activity as we look ahead to early 2025, and we’re headed toward more healthy territory. With interest rates starting to ease, buyers are beginning to come off the sidelines,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “That’s not to say the fall market will be in full swing according to historic standards. Consumers will drive that trend, so we’ll need to see a bigger move by the Bank of Canada for that to happen.”

Consumer Sentiments Going into the Fall Market

Ahead of further anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, it seems that even the mere prospect of lower rates has boosted confidence among first-time homebuyers, with one-quarter of Canadians (25 per cent) actively saving for a home purchase and confident they will be able to buy soon (with the majority being younger Millennials and Gen Zs aged 18-24, at 35 per cent). On the flipside, dropping interest rates now may prove too little, too late for some current homeowners, with 14 per cent saying they need to renew their mortgage soon, and with the current higher interest rate, they may need to sell their home.

When it comes to financial savings, the Leger survey revealed that while a home purchase is listed among the top three priorities for 25 per cent of Canadians, it has taken a back seat to day-to-day expenses such as utilities and food (58 per cent), and travel (45 per cent).

In the search for affordability, one-quarter of Canadians say that they are considering moving to another country (28 per cent) and 25 per cent say they are reconsidering whether to have children or start a family due to housing affordability challenges.

“Despite some consumer confidence starting to return to the market this season, the reality is Canadians are still grappling with some serious housing affordability challenges rooted in lack of supply. Yes, borrowing is becoming less expensive, but this won’t make housing affordable in the long run,” says Alexander. “Markets ebb and flow, and as buyers re-enter the market and absorb inventory, we’ll see more upward pressure on price.

“Ultimately, for the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, we need a national housing strategy developed in collaboration between all levels of government, that’s more strategic and visionary in how we can use existing lands and real estate to boost supply. In the meantime, buyers would be wise to work with an experienced real estate agent to help navigate those cyclical market ups and downs that often accompany this push and pull of supply and demand.”

Regional Market Insights

As part of the 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to share an analysis of their local market between January and July 2023 and 2024 and share their estimated outlook for fall 2024. The majority of regions (76 per cent) anticipate an increase in sale price between one to six per cent, including Greater Vancouver Area, BC; Calgary, AB; Edmonton, AB; Saskatoon, SK; Winnipeg, MB; Halifax, NS; St. John’s Metro, NL; Truro/Colchester, NS; Fredericton, NB; Timmins, ON; Sudbury, ON; Brampton, ON; Mississauga, ON; Niagara, ON; Ottawa, ON; Durham, ON; Barrie, ON; Muskoka, ON; Peterborough, ON; York Region, ON; Kingston, ON; Windsor, ON, and Thunder Bay, ON. Exceptions to the upward trend include Toronto, ON; Hamilton, ON; Burlington, ON; and Kitchener-Waterloo, ON, where a moderate decline between two and three per cent is expected, and Charlottetown, PEI; North Bay, ON, and London, ON, where prices will likely remain flat.

When it comes to listings, a majority of regions surveyed (82 per cent) saw the number of listings increase between 2.3 and 34.7 per cent between January and July (2023 – 2024). The number of sale transactions also increased between 3.1 and 7.4 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 3.4 to 30.9 per cent in Western Canada, and between 0.6 and 14.8 per cent in Ontario, except for some larger Ontario markets like Toronto, Brampton, Durham Region, Mississauga, Peterborough and York Region, where sales trended downward.

According to RE/MAX brokers’ insights, 33 per cent of housing markets are expected to be seller’s markets, but this may shift as competition increases and market conditions evolve.

To view the regional data table, click here.

Western Canada and Prairies

The Prairies continue to skew towards a seller’s market (Edmonton, AB; Calgary, AB; Saskatoon, SK) which is consistent with 2023, except for Winnipeg, MB, which is a balanced market. On the other hand, in Western Canada, inclusive of the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, and Kelowna, BC, a mix of balanced and buyer’s markets are anticipated. Heading into the fall, prices are forecasted to increase by two to six per cent in regions like the Greater Vancouver Area, BC, and Kelowna, BC; Calgary, AB; Edmonton, AB; Saskatoon, SK; and Winnipeg, MB. Sale transactions are anticipated to increase by five to 15 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area, BC; Edmonton, AB; and Winnipeg, MB; and a decrease of one per cent in Saskatoon, SK, due to inventory shortages, while Calgary, AB anticipates sales will remain flat. RE/MAX broker feedback in Regina, SK indicates that many factors will dictate how the market pans out for the remainder of the year, including government election cycles, The Bank of Canada interest rate announcements and inventory levels. Historically, Regina, SK sees the markets cool from mid-September through the end of the year.

All markets in Western Canada and The Prairies – apart from the Greater Vancouver Area, BC – continue to experience supply challenges, with increased activity in the market, as consumers benefit from recent interest rate cuts. Lower mortgage rates have bolstered consumer confidence in the market but paired with low supply, RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region are reporting aggressive offers in conjunction with sellers raising asking prices for residential homes.

Ontario

Despite The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, low housing supply continues to impact multiple markets across Ontario, keeping prices high. However, some buyers are gaining more confidence as mortgage rates decrease and are slowly re-entering the market heading into fall, keeping prices relatively stable in comparison to the year prior. Housing supply is expected to become a larger issue once further interest rate cuts motivate buyers on the sidelines to re-enter the market and spark more competition.

Although some homebuyer confidence is starting to return, buyers in Toronto remain hesitant as affordability continues to be a challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers.

Across Ontario, 12 regions are expecting average residential prices to remain flat or increase modestly heading into the fall. Increasing markets include Timmins, Sudbury, Brampton, Mississauga, Thunder Bay, and Barrie (each rising five per cent), Peterborough, York Region and Kingston (rising three per cent), Niagara (up two per cent), Durham Region and Ottawa (up one per cent), and London (rising a nominal 0.5 per cent). The outliers to this upward trend are Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and Burlington, which are expecting a price decrease.

In Ontario, seven markets are expected to experience balanced conditions this fall, while four are anticipated to be seller’s markets, and five are buyer’s markets. Four markets are expecting a mix, with three buyers/balanced conditions, and one sellers/balanced market.

Atlantic Canada

Echoing similarities to other regions across Canada, Atlantic Canada is also reporting low inventory supply and increased competition when it comes to buyer activity. Buyers are competing aggressively on affordable housing and new listings, causing prices to spike. This is likely a result of current supply challenges and an increase in out-of-town buyers from Western and Central Canada.

Unlike in 2023, average residential prices in Atlantic Canada are expected to increase for the remainder of year, by five per cent in Truro and Colchester, NS, one per cent in Halifax, NS, 1.5 per cent in St. John’s Metro, NL, and two per cent in Fredericton, NB, while Charlottetown, PEI is anticipated to remain flat. All markets in Atlantic Canada with the exception of Charlottetown – which is a buyer’s market – are considered to be seller’s markets.

Quebec

Like other regions across the country, Montreal’s housing shortage coupled with interest rates have resulted in a seller’s market, with buyers making multiple offers on properties to remain competitive or opting to wait on the sidelines. Pricing and marketing are crucial for sellers looking to attract hesitant buyers.

Additional survey findings:

Majority of Canadians (77 per cent) believe steps taken by municipal, provincial, and federal governments to improve housing inventory and affordability are not enough to solve our affordability crisis and more needs to be done
60 per cent of Canadians believe building more diverse types of housing are the key to solving Canada’s housing supply challenges
For 16 per cent of Canadians, rising cost-of-living and affordability challenges have not deterred them at all, and they plan to purchase another home beyond their primary residence soon (or have recently)
40 per cent of Canadians feel Canada is one of the best countries in the world to purchase/invest in real estate (notably this number is higher at 52 per cent, for new Canadians that have been in Canada for less than 5 years)
One-third of Canadians (32 per cent) said they are relying on their home as their only financial plan for retirement.
About Leger

Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,530 Canadians aged 18 years or older, was completed between August 9 and 11, 2024, using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network

As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario–Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Mario Toneguzzi

Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024.

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